Post by Strategist on Jul 8, 2021 9:52:30 GMT
Lets do a little review of our original draft. Today we will be looking at the 1st round. In () will be the player’s WAR IRL from 2018-2020 not going to include this season so far and their rank. Will give each pick 2 grades. How they performed in the sim over the 3 seasons and a second grade for future value.
1. COL Mike Trout – 26 WAR (20.6 1st). 1 MVP. 0 winning seasons. So pretty much the best player in the game but cannot get on a winning team. Not much different than real life. Only concern is injuries as he hasn’t played more than 140 games in a season since 2016. Still would be in top 5 if we did a redraft. A+/A+
2. PIT Carlos Correa- 19.8 WAR (5.7 84th). Elite in game. Good IRL. I remember thinking I would have taken him #1 before the draft because of age and performance. Sure glad I didn’t have that pick because he has been a small disappointment since then. Has only played more than 110 games in a season once. Still only 26 and smashing again this season so definitely time for him live up to the #2 pick. Still think he would go in the first round of a draft. A/B
3. MIA Francisco Lindor – 23.3 WAR (14 8th). Has been elite in game and very good IRL. His offense has to be somewhat of a worry moving forward because of the below average production since the start of 2020. Really only has 1 great offensive season (>120 wRC+) but has been consistently above average. Still elite 75 defensive rating which should hold. Because of the contract he has signed and his recent offensive performance I don’t think he would be drafted top 3 again. I don’t think he would fall that far though. A/B
4. CWS Corey Seager – 18 WAR (5.7 84th). Elite in game. Been pretty good IRL when he is healthy. Has not been healthy. Not 100 percent that he would go in first round with being a FA and injury history. A/B
5. SD Jose Altuve – 17.6 WAR (8.6 37th). Great in game. I bet the Padfathers have very much enjoyed him as their core on a team that has won damn near 300 games in the last 3 seasons with a WS championship. I think he would fall a bit because of age but still around the 1st round range. A/B
6. ARI Nolen Arenado – 21.2 WAR (12.7 12th) 1 MVP and 1 2nd place finish. Been elite in game. Besides the crazy 2020 season has been elite IRL. I think he might drop a little bit because of age and contract in real life but I would think top 15. A+/A
7. BOS Noah Syndergaard – 16.7 WAR (8.5 21st). Great in game. Very good IRL. TJ surgery dampers his future some. I wasn’t a huge fan of he pick at the time but it was horrible. A/B-
8. NYM Luis Severino – 12.5 WAR (5.9 39th) Good in game. 2018 was elite SP but only pitched 12 innings since 2018. I remember being a little surprised that he was drafted this high but looked like it was going to work out if not for injuries. Guessing he would go 2nd or 3rd round in a redraft. Still only 27. A/B-
9. HOU Kris Bryant – 12.6 WAR (7.7 49th). Good in game. Good IRL. He had been elite IRL prior to 2018. I think with age and free agency coming up I don’t know if he would go in the first round in a redraft. As you can see significantly lower WAR then the other guys. B+/B-
10. MIL Aaron Judge – 18.1 WAR (10.6 22nd) Elite in game. Great IRL when healthy. Has only played more than 112 games once. He is hard to pick where he would go with injury history and FA after 2022. I am guessing he would still go 1st round but probably not top 10. A/B+
11. PHI Giancarlo Stanton – 20.6 WAR (5.0 103rd) 1 MVP. 1 HR record. His WAR in real life is skewed by DHing which hurts WAR. Hit 80 HRs in a season and won MVP. Has been elite offensively in game. I really thought that his contract was going to drop him far in our draft. Played out just about perfectly for Anthony though as he was elite for 3 seasons and then opted out. Contract/age/injuries would have him fall for sure in a redraft. A+/B
12. TEX Bryce Harper – 20.4 WAR (9.7 28th) 1 2nd place MVP. Elite in game. Great/very good IRL. I think he would probably go in a very similar spot in a redraft. Maybe a little lower because of massive contract but that didn’t hold Stanton back. A+/A
13. SEA Manny Machado – 13.9 WAR (11.9 16th) Good in game. Great IRL. Huge contract so probably similar draft position or a little lower. A-/A
14. ATL Ronald Acuna – 5.4 WAR didn’t play in MLB in 2018 or 2019 (11.6 17th). This pick wasn’t about immediate results. I think would go top 4 in redraft. Soto, Tatis, and Vlad Jr would be other 3 for sures not in that specific order. C/A+
15. WAS Corey Kluber – 14 WAR (6.1 30th). Very good in game. Great 2018 then beset by injuries. Redraft he would be way down because of age and performance over the last 2 seasons. A/F
16. LAD Mookie Betts – 15.7 (20 2nd). Great in game. Great IRL. Looking back it is pretty surprising that he fell this far. Would definitely be top 10 now. A/A
17. CHC Cody Bellinger – 12.7 WAR (12.6 13th) Good in game. Has had 2 good seasons, 1 Great season and 1 Elite season IRL. Being only 25 I think it is safe to say he is going to be great for a long time. I think he would probably be top 10 pick in redraft. A-/A+
18. CIN Trea Turner 13.6 WAR (11.1 20th) Good to very good in game. Good to great IRL. I think redraft probably drops a little just because of age and coming up on FA. A/A
19. BAL Shohei Ohtani – Can’t get his WAR at work (5.4 40th). Hasn’t been great in the sim but this pick was all about the future and it looks like it is going to work out as he has been nothing short of amazing this season. C+/A+
20. TB Gary Sanchez – 14.2 WAR (3.9 135th). Great in game. Maybe highest WAR catcher. IRL been pretty rocky for him. Hasn’t hit over .232 since 2017. Doubt he is drafted in the top 5 rounds in a redraft. A+/C
21. MIN Freddie Freeman – 16.7 WAR (12.5 14th). 1 MVP. Elite in game. Elite IRL. Being a 1st baseman hurts your WAR score pretty significantly. Age and FA to be I think would drop him down in a redraft. Not out of the second round though.
22. CLE Jose Ramirez – 17.3 WAR (15 6th). 1 3rd place MVP finish. Great in game. Great IRL If I didn’t trade out of the 13th spot I was going to take him so was super happy that he fell to me at 22. It wasn’t just his ability. I am not saying he was better than the guys taken ahead of him but he also had an amazing long term contract and positional flexibility. I think he probably goes around the same place in a redraft as he is older and FA after 2023 but has a more established track record. A+/A
23. TOR Clayton Kershaw – 16.8 WAR (8.2 23rd) Great in game. Very good IRL. Age and upcoming FA would cause his value to drop. Still a 2nd rounder though. A+/A-
24. DET George Springer – 13.2 WAR (11.4 19th) Great in game. Great IRL. I think he probably goes in a very similar position. His contract is bigger but its not nearly as long as some of the other contracts. A+/A
25. OAK Paul Goldschmidt – 11.9 WAR (10.2 24th). Great in game. Great IRL. Probably drops a little because of age but solid contract thru 2024. A-/B+
26. KC Chris Sale – 15.3 WAR (9.8 12th) 1 Cy Young. Great in game. Great IRL. Hasn’t pitched since 18. Probably drops him to the 2nd round. A+/B+
27. NYY Buster Posey – 9 WAR (4 129th). Solid in game. Solid IRL. Definitely hasn’t performed like a 1st round pick. Is playing like a superstar right now. Drops to somewhere around the 3rd round. B+/B
28. SFG Max Scherzer – 19.1 WAR (15.8 2nd). 1 CY young (4th place MVP). 1 3rd place Cy Young. Elite in game. Elite IRL. Because of age and FA to be he would drop in the draft. Not sure how far. I would say the 3rd at the latest. A+/B
29. LAA Stephen Strasburg – 9.6 WAR (8.1 24th). Good in game. Good IRL. Problem for him is always about injuries. Being older, more injuries, and closer to that poison pill last year of his contract I think would cause him to drop to somewhere in the 3rd round. B+/B+
30. STL Ozzie Albies – 18.2 WAR (8.9 33rd). Elite in game. Very good IRL. With his age and contract, I got to believe he would go higher in a redraft. Not sure if he would make it to top 10 though. A+/A
Looking back there aren’t a lot of picks that I can really say were bad picks. With Bregman, Rendon, Degrom, Nola, Devers and Yelich some big names came off early in the second round. But I looked at how every player and how they performed in 2016/2017 and it justified all of the picks. All in all yall did way better in baseball than football!
1. COL Mike Trout – 26 WAR (20.6 1st). 1 MVP. 0 winning seasons. So pretty much the best player in the game but cannot get on a winning team. Not much different than real life. Only concern is injuries as he hasn’t played more than 140 games in a season since 2016. Still would be in top 5 if we did a redraft. A+/A+
2. PIT Carlos Correa- 19.8 WAR (5.7 84th). Elite in game. Good IRL. I remember thinking I would have taken him #1 before the draft because of age and performance. Sure glad I didn’t have that pick because he has been a small disappointment since then. Has only played more than 110 games in a season once. Still only 26 and smashing again this season so definitely time for him live up to the #2 pick. Still think he would go in the first round of a draft. A/B
3. MIA Francisco Lindor – 23.3 WAR (14 8th). Has been elite in game and very good IRL. His offense has to be somewhat of a worry moving forward because of the below average production since the start of 2020. Really only has 1 great offensive season (>120 wRC+) but has been consistently above average. Still elite 75 defensive rating which should hold. Because of the contract he has signed and his recent offensive performance I don’t think he would be drafted top 3 again. I don’t think he would fall that far though. A/B
4. CWS Corey Seager – 18 WAR (5.7 84th). Elite in game. Been pretty good IRL when he is healthy. Has not been healthy. Not 100 percent that he would go in first round with being a FA and injury history. A/B
5. SD Jose Altuve – 17.6 WAR (8.6 37th). Great in game. I bet the Padfathers have very much enjoyed him as their core on a team that has won damn near 300 games in the last 3 seasons with a WS championship. I think he would fall a bit because of age but still around the 1st round range. A/B
6. ARI Nolen Arenado – 21.2 WAR (12.7 12th) 1 MVP and 1 2nd place finish. Been elite in game. Besides the crazy 2020 season has been elite IRL. I think he might drop a little bit because of age and contract in real life but I would think top 15. A+/A
7. BOS Noah Syndergaard – 16.7 WAR (8.5 21st). Great in game. Very good IRL. TJ surgery dampers his future some. I wasn’t a huge fan of he pick at the time but it was horrible. A/B-
8. NYM Luis Severino – 12.5 WAR (5.9 39th) Good in game. 2018 was elite SP but only pitched 12 innings since 2018. I remember being a little surprised that he was drafted this high but looked like it was going to work out if not for injuries. Guessing he would go 2nd or 3rd round in a redraft. Still only 27. A/B-
9. HOU Kris Bryant – 12.6 WAR (7.7 49th). Good in game. Good IRL. He had been elite IRL prior to 2018. I think with age and free agency coming up I don’t know if he would go in the first round in a redraft. As you can see significantly lower WAR then the other guys. B+/B-
10. MIL Aaron Judge – 18.1 WAR (10.6 22nd) Elite in game. Great IRL when healthy. Has only played more than 112 games once. He is hard to pick where he would go with injury history and FA after 2022. I am guessing he would still go 1st round but probably not top 10. A/B+
11. PHI Giancarlo Stanton – 20.6 WAR (5.0 103rd) 1 MVP. 1 HR record. His WAR in real life is skewed by DHing which hurts WAR. Hit 80 HRs in a season and won MVP. Has been elite offensively in game. I really thought that his contract was going to drop him far in our draft. Played out just about perfectly for Anthony though as he was elite for 3 seasons and then opted out. Contract/age/injuries would have him fall for sure in a redraft. A+/B
12. TEX Bryce Harper – 20.4 WAR (9.7 28th) 1 2nd place MVP. Elite in game. Great/very good IRL. I think he would probably go in a very similar spot in a redraft. Maybe a little lower because of massive contract but that didn’t hold Stanton back. A+/A
13. SEA Manny Machado – 13.9 WAR (11.9 16th) Good in game. Great IRL. Huge contract so probably similar draft position or a little lower. A-/A
14. ATL Ronald Acuna – 5.4 WAR didn’t play in MLB in 2018 or 2019 (11.6 17th). This pick wasn’t about immediate results. I think would go top 4 in redraft. Soto, Tatis, and Vlad Jr would be other 3 for sures not in that specific order. C/A+
15. WAS Corey Kluber – 14 WAR (6.1 30th). Very good in game. Great 2018 then beset by injuries. Redraft he would be way down because of age and performance over the last 2 seasons. A/F
16. LAD Mookie Betts – 15.7 (20 2nd). Great in game. Great IRL. Looking back it is pretty surprising that he fell this far. Would definitely be top 10 now. A/A
17. CHC Cody Bellinger – 12.7 WAR (12.6 13th) Good in game. Has had 2 good seasons, 1 Great season and 1 Elite season IRL. Being only 25 I think it is safe to say he is going to be great for a long time. I think he would probably be top 10 pick in redraft. A-/A+
18. CIN Trea Turner 13.6 WAR (11.1 20th) Good to very good in game. Good to great IRL. I think redraft probably drops a little just because of age and coming up on FA. A/A
19. BAL Shohei Ohtani – Can’t get his WAR at work (5.4 40th). Hasn’t been great in the sim but this pick was all about the future and it looks like it is going to work out as he has been nothing short of amazing this season. C+/A+
20. TB Gary Sanchez – 14.2 WAR (3.9 135th). Great in game. Maybe highest WAR catcher. IRL been pretty rocky for him. Hasn’t hit over .232 since 2017. Doubt he is drafted in the top 5 rounds in a redraft. A+/C
21. MIN Freddie Freeman – 16.7 WAR (12.5 14th). 1 MVP. Elite in game. Elite IRL. Being a 1st baseman hurts your WAR score pretty significantly. Age and FA to be I think would drop him down in a redraft. Not out of the second round though.
22. CLE Jose Ramirez – 17.3 WAR (15 6th). 1 3rd place MVP finish. Great in game. Great IRL If I didn’t trade out of the 13th spot I was going to take him so was super happy that he fell to me at 22. It wasn’t just his ability. I am not saying he was better than the guys taken ahead of him but he also had an amazing long term contract and positional flexibility. I think he probably goes around the same place in a redraft as he is older and FA after 2023 but has a more established track record. A+/A
23. TOR Clayton Kershaw – 16.8 WAR (8.2 23rd) Great in game. Very good IRL. Age and upcoming FA would cause his value to drop. Still a 2nd rounder though. A+/A-
24. DET George Springer – 13.2 WAR (11.4 19th) Great in game. Great IRL. I think he probably goes in a very similar position. His contract is bigger but its not nearly as long as some of the other contracts. A+/A
25. OAK Paul Goldschmidt – 11.9 WAR (10.2 24th). Great in game. Great IRL. Probably drops a little because of age but solid contract thru 2024. A-/B+
26. KC Chris Sale – 15.3 WAR (9.8 12th) 1 Cy Young. Great in game. Great IRL. Hasn’t pitched since 18. Probably drops him to the 2nd round. A+/B+
27. NYY Buster Posey – 9 WAR (4 129th). Solid in game. Solid IRL. Definitely hasn’t performed like a 1st round pick. Is playing like a superstar right now. Drops to somewhere around the 3rd round. B+/B
28. SFG Max Scherzer – 19.1 WAR (15.8 2nd). 1 CY young (4th place MVP). 1 3rd place Cy Young. Elite in game. Elite IRL. Because of age and FA to be he would drop in the draft. Not sure how far. I would say the 3rd at the latest. A+/B
29. LAA Stephen Strasburg – 9.6 WAR (8.1 24th). Good in game. Good IRL. Problem for him is always about injuries. Being older, more injuries, and closer to that poison pill last year of his contract I think would cause him to drop to somewhere in the 3rd round. B+/B+
30. STL Ozzie Albies – 18.2 WAR (8.9 33rd). Elite in game. Very good IRL. With his age and contract, I got to believe he would go higher in a redraft. Not sure if he would make it to top 10 though. A+/A
Looking back there aren’t a lot of picks that I can really say were bad picks. With Bregman, Rendon, Degrom, Nola, Devers and Yelich some big names came off early in the second round. But I looked at how every player and how they performed in 2016/2017 and it justified all of the picks. All in all yall did way better in baseball than football!
