Post by marlinsgm on Oct 3, 2018 19:18:29 GMT
With the BRHL OOTP deadline having come and past, I wanted to truly break down each and every deal from the last month (minus the small ones that aren't worth talking about). Below are my grades for each team on each trade, as well as a complete breakdown of deadline winners and losers, and grades for those teams. This is Part 1 of the series.
Trade 1:
Arizona receives:
P Max Fried (AAA)
Washington receives:
SP Zack Wheeler (MLB)
SS Jed Lowrie (MLB)
In what turned out to be one of the only moves Fish made all deadline, the Nats and DBacks got together for what turned out be an extremely interested deal for both teams. For Arizona, there was clearly a direction he was taking his team after dishing Jon Gray out to Jonathan's Brewers for what seems like a boatload of spects, and the DBacks truly continued this trend (just wait till you see trade #2), with the acquisition of Max Fried. Fried was poor at the AAA level this year, but seemed to be a much more effective player in his 14 appearances in the Major Leagues. And while Fried has seemingly been a AAAA pitcher for the last 2 seasons, there seems to have been some traction this year to have Fried reach and stay at the ML level in 2019. In return, Fish's Nats made one of the more shrewd moves, acquiring both Zack Wheeler and SS Jed Lowrie. While Lowrie has struggled for Fish's Nats, he's his second very good season in a row, with an .801 OPS and 23 dongs while playing decent defense. On top of Lowrie's real life success, Zack Wheeler is having a bounceback year for the ages, with a 3.31 ERA and a 3.25 FIP. Wheeler is borderline useless this year for Fish, but with both the present and the future in mind, the Nats did well to pick up pieces for both now, and later as the Nats challenge Anthony's Phillies for the NL East crown.
Grades:
Arizona: C-
While I certainly like Fried, and what he offers, especially as a lefty, he's already 24, about to turn 25, and has still not proven value at the ML level. The fact that Mike was not able to acquire more top end talent for Zack Wheeler is borderline crazy, especially in this pitching market, and Lowrie figures to have similar rates (less contact, more power), next year. I feel a C- might be a generous grade here. Hopefully Fried becomes a front-line starter and makes this deal much less painful.
Washington: A+
The combo of Wheeler and Lowrie makes this deal for Fish a complete coup. Again I like Fried, but getting Wheeler for Fried would be a great return for the Nats already. Adding Lowrie on top of that is even crazier. A complete slam-dunk win for Fish, especially since it helps both this year AND next.
Trade 2:
KC receives:
3B Nolan Arenado (MLB)
ARZ receives:
C Francisco Mejia (AA)
OF Alex Verdugo (AA)
OF Jake Cave (AAA)
P Ryan Castellani (AA)
P Joey Wentz (A)
P Brenan Hanifee (A)
A massive trade by all accounts, Mike trades his cornerstone for a full fledged rebuild. Bryce's Royals really showed their prowess by making a big-time move to acquire a superstar like Arenado, without giving up his entire farm. Arenado has had another MVP caliber season, to no one's surprise. One has to wonder if Arenado's home/road splits will ever be accounted for in ZIPS, but for right now, Bryce acquires an stud to lead his lineup, with very little talent elsewhere in the lineup. You do have to wonder down the line how Bryce's plans to pay Sale, Arenado, Nola, and Freeland, but thats an issue for when they get there. For now the Royals become a legitimate threat to win the AL Central, and more-so, become the favorite for the division next year. On the other hand, Mike did a far better job acquiring elite talent this time around. Mejia has been everything he was advertised and then some in San Diego this year. While he only hit .185, he showed elite power for a catcher, solid defense, and likely will take over the job there full-time. On top of Mejia, Mike acquired Alex Verdugo, who truly had a down year in terms of his power production, but has the potential to be a 25-30 HR guy down the line. Both Wentz and Hanifee could prove to be extremely valuable arms down the road, and continue to add to the depth of the Arizona prospect pool which has grown quite large this year. And while I don't like Cave or Castellani much, Cave hit a productive .797 OPS in 91 games for the Twins, and should see a bigger increase of time next season.
Grades:
Kansas City: A-
The Royals get Arenado and honestly didn't overpay to get him. That much is worth an A- alone. Arenado is only 27, is an elite 3B, if not the best in the game, and will continue to be an elite talent for the Royals as they go full throttle for the AL Central next year. Another nice trade from Bryce.
Arizona: B+
I cannot justify giving Mike an A- for trading Arenado without getting a major overpay of assets, but this was still what I would call a win-win. Theres a clear direction Mike is taking the DBacks, and if he hits on a few of these prospects, his team will be elite in the next few years. He just has to make sure they actually pan out, Still Mike definitely did not "sell short" on Arenado, and gets a well deserved B+.
Trade 3:
San Diego receives:
RP A.J. Minter (MLB)
Houston receives:
1B Ronald Guzman (AAA)
SP Nick Neidert (AA)
Trading Minter this early could be a true boom or bust for Interim GM Bryce here. Minter's 2.72 FIP at 25 years old is a marvel. Not to mention he's a cost-controlled lefty. I truly don't know if this was the best long term move for Houston, but I also get it from an asset standpoint. Nonetheless, Minter displays qualities that elite relief arms show, and at only 25, with a potential 10-year career ahead, Bryce better hope he got this right. Guzman at the ML level (finally), slashed a .235/.306/.416 in Texas this year, but displayed legit long-ball power with 16 Johnsons in those 123 games. Neidert continued to improve upon his strong 2017 with a very strong 3.24 ERA, 152.2 innings showing at the AA level this season at only 21 years old. Neidert has thrown himself into legit prospect talk, and has really opened eyes in the Miami system after being acquired from Seattle for Dee Gordon.
Grades:
Houston: C
I get this deal for them and I don't. I truly like Neidert and think he could be a solid 2/3 arm at the Major League level if he continues his development. Nonetheless, I don't get it. Minter is a stud at 25 years old, and while bullpen arms are a dime a dozen, cost controlled 25 year old lefty closers are not. I think Bryce lost this deal pretty badly for Houston. Guzman might be an average player but I don't see anything special on the horizon.
San Diego: A-
I will avoid the solid "A" because of what Neidert may become. It really doesn't matter though, because while Minter may not be a stud in OOTP 19, he for sure will be in OOTP 20. Future closer, cost controlled, lefty. Absolute steal for the Padres. I love this deal for them, and I am a big Neidert fan. Worth it.
Trade 4:
Arizona receives:
RP Jandel Gustave (AAA)
p Austin Voth (AA)
OF Casey Golden (A)
Tampa Bay receives:
UTIL Ben Zobrist (MLB)
(Arizona Retains 100% of 2018 salary only)
For me this trade all comes down to Gustave. Its a decent sized, calculated risk by Arizona, and I like it both sides. Lets start with the smaller pieces, Austin Voth in my opinion is an arm. Theres nothing special that I like about him. Casey Golden is showing major power numbers at the very low level, and thats the problem. Golden is 24-years old and is launching, but he's 24, and he's playing in A Ball. I just don't think he's great and I don't see the success continuing. He's the definition of a true wild card. Gustave, though, is the prize for Zona. If he can regain his 2016 form, I think he may end up as an elite bullpen arm. He's recovering from a torn UCL and so at this point, we don't know, but I truly think Gustave has a chance to be a very good player. Zobrist, we know what he is. The worst part is, he's been TERRIBLE for Tampa. Luckily its only been 10 games, but a .492 OPS is GROSS. Zorbist is a good player though, and I expect him to recover and be the player he had been for Arizona in BRHL.
Grades:
Arizona: B-
I wish Mike had tried for something better than Voth and Golden to go along with Gustave. I think if he had gotten another legit prospect, this would've been a good grade, but I think B- is fair. Gustave is injured and we don't know what he will be. If he recovers, this could still be a very good deal, so its a worthwhile risk for Zona who has a ton of prospects already
Tampa Bay: B
Zobrist has suckkkkkkked so far, but he should recover and be a good player for Tampa. I look at it like this, if Gustave becomes a good player, its probably an L, but while competing for a playoff spot, its the type of deal you need to make. I still don't love Zobrist much, but I think the addition of Zobrist while giving up only true unknowns, means Tampa is the winner as of now.
Trade 5:
Tampa Bay receives:
SP Danny Duffy (MLB)
(Kansas City covers 100% salary 2018, 25% in 2019)
Kansas City receives:
P Sean Reid-Foley (A)
OF Travis Swaggerty (Draft Pick)
I'm so torn on this trade. I hate it and I love it, but lets break it down first. Duffy was awful for KC, and I mean awful. He needed a change of scenery, and it seems to have worked, but still....Duffy in real life has been nothing short of a mess. A 4.88 ERA and a 4.70 FIP? Hard pass. Duffy will be next to useless next year, so Tampa has to hope they capitalize on him this year. Reid-Foley on the other hand made MAJOR strides, and was dominant in AA, good in AAA, and shitty in the majors. However, SRF is only 23 and should be a nice starter in the next few years for Toronto. I'm a fan. Swaggerty, is only 21 and while he was a mixed bag this year, he should make big strides in 2019 and reach AA. If he does, and he plays well, this will be a major loss for Tampa as Swaggerty is projected to be an above average regular at the very least at the next level.
Grades:
Tampa Bay: C
I am not going to kill TJ here because Duffy has been very good for him so far, but thats the ONLY reason. Duffy will be useless next year, and was awful in KC in BRHL this year. While he's salary-less, I think there's a very good chance TJ could've gotten a better pitcher for a similar package. If Duffy continues to tear it up for Tampa and leads them to the championship, this trade will absolutely be worth it, and I will eat my words. But I don't see Duffy being the difference maker. TJ should've done better here.
Kansas City: A
Bryce did as well as he possibly could for Duffy. Yeah he retained salary....so what? He gets two very good prospects, one an almost ready MLB arm, and the other a potential very good CF for half a season of a pitcher who was AWFUL for him and has no value next year. One of Bryce's patented rip offs. Complete one-sided deal in my mind.
Part 2 to come Thursday Night/Early Friday Morning
Trade 1:
Arizona receives:
P Max Fried (AAA)
Washington receives:
SP Zack Wheeler (MLB)
SS Jed Lowrie (MLB)
In what turned out to be one of the only moves Fish made all deadline, the Nats and DBacks got together for what turned out be an extremely interested deal for both teams. For Arizona, there was clearly a direction he was taking his team after dishing Jon Gray out to Jonathan's Brewers for what seems like a boatload of spects, and the DBacks truly continued this trend (just wait till you see trade #2), with the acquisition of Max Fried. Fried was poor at the AAA level this year, but seemed to be a much more effective player in his 14 appearances in the Major Leagues. And while Fried has seemingly been a AAAA pitcher for the last 2 seasons, there seems to have been some traction this year to have Fried reach and stay at the ML level in 2019. In return, Fish's Nats made one of the more shrewd moves, acquiring both Zack Wheeler and SS Jed Lowrie. While Lowrie has struggled for Fish's Nats, he's his second very good season in a row, with an .801 OPS and 23 dongs while playing decent defense. On top of Lowrie's real life success, Zack Wheeler is having a bounceback year for the ages, with a 3.31 ERA and a 3.25 FIP. Wheeler is borderline useless this year for Fish, but with both the present and the future in mind, the Nats did well to pick up pieces for both now, and later as the Nats challenge Anthony's Phillies for the NL East crown.
Grades:
Arizona: C-
While I certainly like Fried, and what he offers, especially as a lefty, he's already 24, about to turn 25, and has still not proven value at the ML level. The fact that Mike was not able to acquire more top end talent for Zack Wheeler is borderline crazy, especially in this pitching market, and Lowrie figures to have similar rates (less contact, more power), next year. I feel a C- might be a generous grade here. Hopefully Fried becomes a front-line starter and makes this deal much less painful.
Washington: A+
The combo of Wheeler and Lowrie makes this deal for Fish a complete coup. Again I like Fried, but getting Wheeler for Fried would be a great return for the Nats already. Adding Lowrie on top of that is even crazier. A complete slam-dunk win for Fish, especially since it helps both this year AND next.
Trade 2:
KC receives:
3B Nolan Arenado (MLB)
ARZ receives:
C Francisco Mejia (AA)
OF Alex Verdugo (AA)
OF Jake Cave (AAA)
P Ryan Castellani (AA)
P Joey Wentz (A)
P Brenan Hanifee (A)
A massive trade by all accounts, Mike trades his cornerstone for a full fledged rebuild. Bryce's Royals really showed their prowess by making a big-time move to acquire a superstar like Arenado, without giving up his entire farm. Arenado has had another MVP caliber season, to no one's surprise. One has to wonder if Arenado's home/road splits will ever be accounted for in ZIPS, but for right now, Bryce acquires an stud to lead his lineup, with very little talent elsewhere in the lineup. You do have to wonder down the line how Bryce's plans to pay Sale, Arenado, Nola, and Freeland, but thats an issue for when they get there. For now the Royals become a legitimate threat to win the AL Central, and more-so, become the favorite for the division next year. On the other hand, Mike did a far better job acquiring elite talent this time around. Mejia has been everything he was advertised and then some in San Diego this year. While he only hit .185, he showed elite power for a catcher, solid defense, and likely will take over the job there full-time. On top of Mejia, Mike acquired Alex Verdugo, who truly had a down year in terms of his power production, but has the potential to be a 25-30 HR guy down the line. Both Wentz and Hanifee could prove to be extremely valuable arms down the road, and continue to add to the depth of the Arizona prospect pool which has grown quite large this year. And while I don't like Cave or Castellani much, Cave hit a productive .797 OPS in 91 games for the Twins, and should see a bigger increase of time next season.
Grades:
Kansas City: A-
The Royals get Arenado and honestly didn't overpay to get him. That much is worth an A- alone. Arenado is only 27, is an elite 3B, if not the best in the game, and will continue to be an elite talent for the Royals as they go full throttle for the AL Central next year. Another nice trade from Bryce.
Arizona: B+
I cannot justify giving Mike an A- for trading Arenado without getting a major overpay of assets, but this was still what I would call a win-win. Theres a clear direction Mike is taking the DBacks, and if he hits on a few of these prospects, his team will be elite in the next few years. He just has to make sure they actually pan out, Still Mike definitely did not "sell short" on Arenado, and gets a well deserved B+.
Trade 3:
San Diego receives:
RP A.J. Minter (MLB)
Houston receives:
1B Ronald Guzman (AAA)
SP Nick Neidert (AA)
Trading Minter this early could be a true boom or bust for Interim GM Bryce here. Minter's 2.72 FIP at 25 years old is a marvel. Not to mention he's a cost-controlled lefty. I truly don't know if this was the best long term move for Houston, but I also get it from an asset standpoint. Nonetheless, Minter displays qualities that elite relief arms show, and at only 25, with a potential 10-year career ahead, Bryce better hope he got this right. Guzman at the ML level (finally), slashed a .235/.306/.416 in Texas this year, but displayed legit long-ball power with 16 Johnsons in those 123 games. Neidert continued to improve upon his strong 2017 with a very strong 3.24 ERA, 152.2 innings showing at the AA level this season at only 21 years old. Neidert has thrown himself into legit prospect talk, and has really opened eyes in the Miami system after being acquired from Seattle for Dee Gordon.
Grades:
Houston: C
I get this deal for them and I don't. I truly like Neidert and think he could be a solid 2/3 arm at the Major League level if he continues his development. Nonetheless, I don't get it. Minter is a stud at 25 years old, and while bullpen arms are a dime a dozen, cost controlled 25 year old lefty closers are not. I think Bryce lost this deal pretty badly for Houston. Guzman might be an average player but I don't see anything special on the horizon.
San Diego: A-
I will avoid the solid "A" because of what Neidert may become. It really doesn't matter though, because while Minter may not be a stud in OOTP 19, he for sure will be in OOTP 20. Future closer, cost controlled, lefty. Absolute steal for the Padres. I love this deal for them, and I am a big Neidert fan. Worth it.
Trade 4:
Arizona receives:
RP Jandel Gustave (AAA)
p Austin Voth (AA)
OF Casey Golden (A)
Tampa Bay receives:
UTIL Ben Zobrist (MLB)
(Arizona Retains 100% of 2018 salary only)
For me this trade all comes down to Gustave. Its a decent sized, calculated risk by Arizona, and I like it both sides. Lets start with the smaller pieces, Austin Voth in my opinion is an arm. Theres nothing special that I like about him. Casey Golden is showing major power numbers at the very low level, and thats the problem. Golden is 24-years old and is launching, but he's 24, and he's playing in A Ball. I just don't think he's great and I don't see the success continuing. He's the definition of a true wild card. Gustave, though, is the prize for Zona. If he can regain his 2016 form, I think he may end up as an elite bullpen arm. He's recovering from a torn UCL and so at this point, we don't know, but I truly think Gustave has a chance to be a very good player. Zobrist, we know what he is. The worst part is, he's been TERRIBLE for Tampa. Luckily its only been 10 games, but a .492 OPS is GROSS. Zorbist is a good player though, and I expect him to recover and be the player he had been for Arizona in BRHL.
Grades:
Arizona: B-
I wish Mike had tried for something better than Voth and Golden to go along with Gustave. I think if he had gotten another legit prospect, this would've been a good grade, but I think B- is fair. Gustave is injured and we don't know what he will be. If he recovers, this could still be a very good deal, so its a worthwhile risk for Zona who has a ton of prospects already
Tampa Bay: B
Zobrist has suckkkkkkked so far, but he should recover and be a good player for Tampa. I look at it like this, if Gustave becomes a good player, its probably an L, but while competing for a playoff spot, its the type of deal you need to make. I still don't love Zobrist much, but I think the addition of Zobrist while giving up only true unknowns, means Tampa is the winner as of now.
Trade 5:
Tampa Bay receives:
SP Danny Duffy (MLB)
(Kansas City covers 100% salary 2018, 25% in 2019)
Kansas City receives:
P Sean Reid-Foley (A)
OF Travis Swaggerty (Draft Pick)
I'm so torn on this trade. I hate it and I love it, but lets break it down first. Duffy was awful for KC, and I mean awful. He needed a change of scenery, and it seems to have worked, but still....Duffy in real life has been nothing short of a mess. A 4.88 ERA and a 4.70 FIP? Hard pass. Duffy will be next to useless next year, so Tampa has to hope they capitalize on him this year. Reid-Foley on the other hand made MAJOR strides, and was dominant in AA, good in AAA, and shitty in the majors. However, SRF is only 23 and should be a nice starter in the next few years for Toronto. I'm a fan. Swaggerty, is only 21 and while he was a mixed bag this year, he should make big strides in 2019 and reach AA. If he does, and he plays well, this will be a major loss for Tampa as Swaggerty is projected to be an above average regular at the very least at the next level.
Grades:
Tampa Bay: C
I am not going to kill TJ here because Duffy has been very good for him so far, but thats the ONLY reason. Duffy will be useless next year, and was awful in KC in BRHL this year. While he's salary-less, I think there's a very good chance TJ could've gotten a better pitcher for a similar package. If Duffy continues to tear it up for Tampa and leads them to the championship, this trade will absolutely be worth it, and I will eat my words. But I don't see Duffy being the difference maker. TJ should've done better here.
Kansas City: A
Bryce did as well as he possibly could for Duffy. Yeah he retained salary....so what? He gets two very good prospects, one an almost ready MLB arm, and the other a potential very good CF for half a season of a pitcher who was AWFUL for him and has no value next year. One of Bryce's patented rip offs. Complete one-sided deal in my mind.
Part 2 to come Thursday Night/Early Friday Morning