Post by marlinsgm on Oct 4, 2018 13:05:51 GMT
With the BRHL OOTP deadline having come and past, I wanted to truly break down each and every deal from the last month (minus the small ones that aren't worth talking about). Below are my grades for each team on each trade, as well as a complete breakdown of deadline winners and losers, and grades for those teams. This is Part 2 of the series.
Trade 1:
Seattle receives:
SP Sean Manaea (ML)
Atlanta receives:
3B Austin Riley (AAA)
2B Keston Hiura (AAA)
1B Yordan Alvarez (AA)
I like this deal for both teams, but to be honest this is an overpay. Manaea had a great year, and pitched well to a tune 3.59 ERA, but his outlying stats were concerning nonetheless. A 4.26 FIP and a 4.32 xFIP, and an incredibly lucky .247 BABIP. In fact, I would argue Manaea might have been the most OVERRATED pitcher in the entire league this year. However, and its a big however, Manaea should project pretty well in ZIPS, and adding him to a guy like Jose Berrios, who had his 2nd nice year in a row at age 24, is very much appealing. However here's my issue. Riley was both very good at AA and AAA this year at 21, and looks primed to burst on the scene, no later than late 2019, Yordan Alvarez similarly, played veryyy well at AA, and while he didn't play as well at AAA, he should be in the bigs no later than 2020. And finally, Hirua, who might have the best bat out of all of them, took big strides to AA, and looks primed for a late 2019/2020 breakout for Milwaukee.
Grades:
Seattle: B-
We'll have to see how Manaea does, but I am not positive he's going to be the pitcher everyone thinks he will be. I actually dislike Manaea far more than most including Snake. For instance I much prefer Luis Castillo (who I didn't like all that much), more than Manaea. That's how little I like him. I think he'll take a step back next year, and if that's the case, Snake is in trouble. But theres always a chance (Bryce would tell you a big one,) that I'm wrong and Manaea vastly improves. Either way, Snake acquires a good (in others opinions), young, left, cost-controlled starter who should have good rates next year. I just hope he keeps improving instead of settling as a middle of the road #3 guy, which is where I project him.
Atlanta: A
Unfortunately, I have to "ball wash" Rumpy here. It was a great deal. He took Manaea late and got 3 legit prospects back, including two premium position prospects. If even 2 of these guys pan, Rumpy will be sitting pretty as he adds to his massive pool of prospects. I don't like Manaea much, and Rumpy, despite telling me all year how great he was, clearly didn't either. Only reason this is not an A+ is because Rumpy didn't pull a SP prospect like Triston McKenzie, Adrian Morejon, or Kyle Wright back. He should've tried for at least one arm.
Trade 2:
Houston receives:
2B Taylor Walls (AA)
SP Sam Hjelle (A)
Boston receives:
2B Brock Holt (ML)
I don't have much to say about this. Boston got robbed. I've watched Brock Holt all my life, and he's a fun utility guy. That being said, he's nothing special. He hit for his highest OPS ever at .747 and he still sucked this year. Boston can move him around and play him almost anywhere on the field, and that is valuable, but not worth the return. Houston continues to add to their prospect pile with Taylor Walls, who I thought had a break-thru at A-ball this year, and while Hjelle struggled mightily, I still have high hopes for.
Grades:
Houston: A+
Nothing to say. This is a Shuck job at its finest. Props to Bryce for continuing to stockpile for Houston.
Boston: D+
I just don't get it. You probably could've gotten a much better bat for this package. I get the position versatility and while that's nice to have in OOTP, Erick Gonzalez provides the same thing and wouldn't cost almost anything. Most guys don't to be honest. I don't get this deal at all for Boston.
Trade 3:
St. Louis receives:
OF Corey Ray (AA)
Milwaukee receives:
CL Mark Melancon (ML)
(All of Melancon's salary from 2018, 2019, and 2020 retained by STL)
Love this deal. This is the definition of a win-win-win. Melancon, despite his awful 2017, is rated incredibly well, and has been dominant this year for STL in BRHL. Now he's in Milwaukee, and he's continued his dominance as he's thrown 5.1 shutout innings. On the other hand Corey Ray has really struggled, yet somehow I really like the kid. I still have high hopes that he makes it and his power numbers exploded as he ended up with a nice .801 OPS and 27 taters. I think Mondo probably gave up too much, but I get why he wanted Ray. And of course its a win-win-win, because it continues to show how dumb the GM in Cincy is, sitting on his hands.
Grades:
St. Louis: B+
I like this deal for Mondo except the retention. You can't retain on a guy like Melancon for 3 years without getting more than Ray. That's why Mondo's only getting a B+ here. Still I am a big fan of Ray, and think Mondo would've had an A had he only retained one year.
Milwaukee: A-
Melancon, being added to Milwaukee's pen is exactly what was needed at the time by Jonathan. I really like this deal for the Brew Crew, especially since they get Melancon for 2.5 years for free. They don't get an A from me because they dealt Ray and I like the kid.
Trade 4:
New York Mets receive:
OF Bryan Reynolds (AA)
San Diego receives:
SP Lance Lynn (ML)
(Mets retain 100% of Lynn's remaining 2018 salary)
I was probably too hard on Larry when it came to this deal. Looking back I regret it. I didn't realize just how bad Lynn was rated, and that he was a pending UFA. I thought he had one more year of control and was rated better. Nonetheless, Lynn was very good for Larry, and I thought that would continue. Unfortunately for Danny, Lynn has been awful in his first 2 starts, while Reynolds finished up the year quite well. Still getting another arm down the stretch is always valuable and clearly Danny didn't believe much in Reynolds.
Grades:
New York Mets: B-
I was too hard on Larry when he made this deal, but he still didn't get enough for Lynn in my opinion. There should be another prospect in this deal, especially with the price of pitching around the league, and Lynn's performance in New York. Larry sold short, but at least he was able to get Reynolds. If Reynolds becomes a league average regular, the old man will look back and be very pleased with this one.
San Diego: B
I know Lynn has struggled a lot, but I still think San Diego did the better of the two here. Lynn was quite good in New York, and the risk for getting another potential #3 starter for just Reynolds is a risk you have to make as a competing team, every single time. Its unfortunate that Lynn has been shit in his 2 starts, but I still think Danny deserves a B for the deal.
Trade 5:
Rangers receive:
1B/3B Danny Valencia (ML)
Marlins receive:
P Heitor Tokar (A)
I am going to give myself a pat on the back (shocking, I know right?) for this one. I claimed Valencia off waivers, expecting him to just another crappy guy, but he hit pretty well and I was surprised with his rates. Valencia had a lovely .848 OPS in Miami, but he's done nothing for Texas so far. Nonetheless, Texas only gave up a legitimate wild card prospect for him. Tokar is a massive 6'6, 17 year old pitcher from Brazil who is already 256 lbs, and that's the worry with him, just how big can he get? Tokar, though, was extremely impressive with a 1.66 ERA in 13 appearances (8 starts), and 43.1 innings. At 17, we won't know more about him for a while, so its a complete and utter crapshoot, but the initial prognosis is good.
Grades:
Texas: B
Valencia has struggled so far for Texas, but his bat could be very good down the stretch for the Rangers. While he's done jack in his 21 games, he'll likely break through and be a nice bench option for Texas as they challenge for the playoffs. I think its a low-risk add as they added another nice bat off the bench.
Miami: B-
Only reason I'm giving myself a B- is because I claimed Valencia off waivers. Tokar was nice in his short sample size, but thats what it is....a short sample size. He's 17 years old, and almost 18, and we really don't know what he is. Its a pure lotto-ticket move by me. I wanted to get more for Valencia, but didn't draw the interest I had hoped.
Trade 6:
Mariners receive:
SP Luis Castillo (AAA)
RP Tyler Thornburg (AAA)
1B Pedro Castellanos (AA)
Marlins receive:
SP Jamie Barria (A)
SP Triston McKenzie (ML)
1B Hanley Ramirez (ML)
So as Jonathan pointed out, I like this deal much better for Snake than the Manaea one. I think Castillo is better, has better stuff, and much, much more upside. Castillo sucked this year to be honest though, with a 4.32 FIP and a .282 BABIP, however his xFIP gives hope at 3.69. Not to mention Castillo's stuff is a LOT better than Manaea's. That being said, I LOVE McKenzie, and getting Snake to give him up was the reason I made the deal. I also loved Barria, and think he may actually be rated better than Castillo will be next year, especially at 22 years old. Thornburg was awful this year, but represents another bounceback candidate for the M's, while he got rid of Hanley's salary.
Grades:
Mariners: B+
Castillo badly, badly struggled this year, but if he rebounds next year, this deal is a grand slam home run for the Mariners. He gave up both McKenzie and Barria, but the likelihood is one of those won't pan out, and if thats the case, I would wager Castillo is worth more to him than what he gave up. Moving on from Hanley's salary, and getting another wildcard in Thornburg will help as well, but this deal all hinges on a 2019 bounceback from Castillo.
Marlins: B
I sold low on Castillo. I know it. Its not my usual MO. However, I was quite worried that if I kept Castillo and he sucked, then all value was gone, and I would have wasted a pretty damn good asset, especially since I don't like Castillo much. I do however LOVE McKenzie. Out of all the young pitchers, he's one of my favorites. Yes more than Kyle Wright and Adrian Morejon who we discussed as well. Barria will be a usable OOTP pitcher in 2019, and is only 22 and pitched decently enough. If he continues to be a #3 starter, or even better, I'll be quite pleased. Hopefully this doesn't backfire on me.
Trade 1:
Seattle receives:
SP Sean Manaea (ML)
Atlanta receives:
3B Austin Riley (AAA)
2B Keston Hiura (AAA)
1B Yordan Alvarez (AA)
I like this deal for both teams, but to be honest this is an overpay. Manaea had a great year, and pitched well to a tune 3.59 ERA, but his outlying stats were concerning nonetheless. A 4.26 FIP and a 4.32 xFIP, and an incredibly lucky .247 BABIP. In fact, I would argue Manaea might have been the most OVERRATED pitcher in the entire league this year. However, and its a big however, Manaea should project pretty well in ZIPS, and adding him to a guy like Jose Berrios, who had his 2nd nice year in a row at age 24, is very much appealing. However here's my issue. Riley was both very good at AA and AAA this year at 21, and looks primed to burst on the scene, no later than late 2019, Yordan Alvarez similarly, played veryyy well at AA, and while he didn't play as well at AAA, he should be in the bigs no later than 2020. And finally, Hirua, who might have the best bat out of all of them, took big strides to AA, and looks primed for a late 2019/2020 breakout for Milwaukee.
Grades:
Seattle: B-
We'll have to see how Manaea does, but I am not positive he's going to be the pitcher everyone thinks he will be. I actually dislike Manaea far more than most including Snake. For instance I much prefer Luis Castillo (who I didn't like all that much), more than Manaea. That's how little I like him. I think he'll take a step back next year, and if that's the case, Snake is in trouble. But theres always a chance (Bryce would tell you a big one,) that I'm wrong and Manaea vastly improves. Either way, Snake acquires a good (in others opinions), young, left, cost-controlled starter who should have good rates next year. I just hope he keeps improving instead of settling as a middle of the road #3 guy, which is where I project him.
Atlanta: A
Unfortunately, I have to "ball wash" Rumpy here. It was a great deal. He took Manaea late and got 3 legit prospects back, including two premium position prospects. If even 2 of these guys pan, Rumpy will be sitting pretty as he adds to his massive pool of prospects. I don't like Manaea much, and Rumpy, despite telling me all year how great he was, clearly didn't either. Only reason this is not an A+ is because Rumpy didn't pull a SP prospect like Triston McKenzie, Adrian Morejon, or Kyle Wright back. He should've tried for at least one arm.
Trade 2:
Houston receives:
2B Taylor Walls (AA)
SP Sam Hjelle (A)
Boston receives:
2B Brock Holt (ML)
I don't have much to say about this. Boston got robbed. I've watched Brock Holt all my life, and he's a fun utility guy. That being said, he's nothing special. He hit for his highest OPS ever at .747 and he still sucked this year. Boston can move him around and play him almost anywhere on the field, and that is valuable, but not worth the return. Houston continues to add to their prospect pile with Taylor Walls, who I thought had a break-thru at A-ball this year, and while Hjelle struggled mightily, I still have high hopes for.
Grades:
Houston: A+
Nothing to say. This is a Shuck job at its finest. Props to Bryce for continuing to stockpile for Houston.
Boston: D+
I just don't get it. You probably could've gotten a much better bat for this package. I get the position versatility and while that's nice to have in OOTP, Erick Gonzalez provides the same thing and wouldn't cost almost anything. Most guys don't to be honest. I don't get this deal at all for Boston.
Trade 3:
St. Louis receives:
OF Corey Ray (AA)
Milwaukee receives:
CL Mark Melancon (ML)
(All of Melancon's salary from 2018, 2019, and 2020 retained by STL)
Love this deal. This is the definition of a win-win-win. Melancon, despite his awful 2017, is rated incredibly well, and has been dominant this year for STL in BRHL. Now he's in Milwaukee, and he's continued his dominance as he's thrown 5.1 shutout innings. On the other hand Corey Ray has really struggled, yet somehow I really like the kid. I still have high hopes that he makes it and his power numbers exploded as he ended up with a nice .801 OPS and 27 taters. I think Mondo probably gave up too much, but I get why he wanted Ray. And of course its a win-win-win, because it continues to show how dumb the GM in Cincy is, sitting on his hands.
Grades:
St. Louis: B+
I like this deal for Mondo except the retention. You can't retain on a guy like Melancon for 3 years without getting more than Ray. That's why Mondo's only getting a B+ here. Still I am a big fan of Ray, and think Mondo would've had an A had he only retained one year.
Milwaukee: A-
Melancon, being added to Milwaukee's pen is exactly what was needed at the time by Jonathan. I really like this deal for the Brew Crew, especially since they get Melancon for 2.5 years for free. They don't get an A from me because they dealt Ray and I like the kid.
Trade 4:
New York Mets receive:
OF Bryan Reynolds (AA)
San Diego receives:
SP Lance Lynn (ML)
(Mets retain 100% of Lynn's remaining 2018 salary)
I was probably too hard on Larry when it came to this deal. Looking back I regret it. I didn't realize just how bad Lynn was rated, and that he was a pending UFA. I thought he had one more year of control and was rated better. Nonetheless, Lynn was very good for Larry, and I thought that would continue. Unfortunately for Danny, Lynn has been awful in his first 2 starts, while Reynolds finished up the year quite well. Still getting another arm down the stretch is always valuable and clearly Danny didn't believe much in Reynolds.
Grades:
New York Mets: B-
I was too hard on Larry when he made this deal, but he still didn't get enough for Lynn in my opinion. There should be another prospect in this deal, especially with the price of pitching around the league, and Lynn's performance in New York. Larry sold short, but at least he was able to get Reynolds. If Reynolds becomes a league average regular, the old man will look back and be very pleased with this one.
San Diego: B
I know Lynn has struggled a lot, but I still think San Diego did the better of the two here. Lynn was quite good in New York, and the risk for getting another potential #3 starter for just Reynolds is a risk you have to make as a competing team, every single time. Its unfortunate that Lynn has been shit in his 2 starts, but I still think Danny deserves a B for the deal.
Trade 5:
Rangers receive:
1B/3B Danny Valencia (ML)
Marlins receive:
P Heitor Tokar (A)
I am going to give myself a pat on the back (shocking, I know right?) for this one. I claimed Valencia off waivers, expecting him to just another crappy guy, but he hit pretty well and I was surprised with his rates. Valencia had a lovely .848 OPS in Miami, but he's done nothing for Texas so far. Nonetheless, Texas only gave up a legitimate wild card prospect for him. Tokar is a massive 6'6, 17 year old pitcher from Brazil who is already 256 lbs, and that's the worry with him, just how big can he get? Tokar, though, was extremely impressive with a 1.66 ERA in 13 appearances (8 starts), and 43.1 innings. At 17, we won't know more about him for a while, so its a complete and utter crapshoot, but the initial prognosis is good.
Grades:
Texas: B
Valencia has struggled so far for Texas, but his bat could be very good down the stretch for the Rangers. While he's done jack in his 21 games, he'll likely break through and be a nice bench option for Texas as they challenge for the playoffs. I think its a low-risk add as they added another nice bat off the bench.
Miami: B-
Only reason I'm giving myself a B- is because I claimed Valencia off waivers. Tokar was nice in his short sample size, but thats what it is....a short sample size. He's 17 years old, and almost 18, and we really don't know what he is. Its a pure lotto-ticket move by me. I wanted to get more for Valencia, but didn't draw the interest I had hoped.
Trade 6:
Mariners receive:
SP Luis Castillo (AAA)
RP Tyler Thornburg (AAA)
1B Pedro Castellanos (AA)
Marlins receive:
SP Jamie Barria (A)
SP Triston McKenzie (ML)
1B Hanley Ramirez (ML)
So as Jonathan pointed out, I like this deal much better for Snake than the Manaea one. I think Castillo is better, has better stuff, and much, much more upside. Castillo sucked this year to be honest though, with a 4.32 FIP and a .282 BABIP, however his xFIP gives hope at 3.69. Not to mention Castillo's stuff is a LOT better than Manaea's. That being said, I LOVE McKenzie, and getting Snake to give him up was the reason I made the deal. I also loved Barria, and think he may actually be rated better than Castillo will be next year, especially at 22 years old. Thornburg was awful this year, but represents another bounceback candidate for the M's, while he got rid of Hanley's salary.
Grades:
Mariners: B+
Castillo badly, badly struggled this year, but if he rebounds next year, this deal is a grand slam home run for the Mariners. He gave up both McKenzie and Barria, but the likelihood is one of those won't pan out, and if thats the case, I would wager Castillo is worth more to him than what he gave up. Moving on from Hanley's salary, and getting another wildcard in Thornburg will help as well, but this deal all hinges on a 2019 bounceback from Castillo.
Marlins: B
I sold low on Castillo. I know it. Its not my usual MO. However, I was quite worried that if I kept Castillo and he sucked, then all value was gone, and I would have wasted a pretty damn good asset, especially since I don't like Castillo much. I do however LOVE McKenzie. Out of all the young pitchers, he's one of my favorites. Yes more than Kyle Wright and Adrian Morejon who we discussed as well. Barria will be a usable OOTP pitcher in 2019, and is only 22 and pitched decently enough. If he continues to be a #3 starter, or even better, I'll be quite pleased. Hopefully this doesn't backfire on me.
