Post by Strategist on Dec 31, 2019 23:29:16 GMT
Next in the series the KC Royals. Short 2018 review record 73-89, was 2nd (in AL) in starters ERA but the 11th (in AL) in bullpen ERA which added up to 5.0 R/G against (T-9 in AL) while the offense was able to score 4.6 R/G (T-12).
Starting the Off-season:
Lineup: Nolen Arenado traded for in the middle of the 2018 gave this lineup an anchor it hadn't previously had. Paired with Dansby Swanson created a dominate left side defense. Around him may have not been other stars but every other spot in the lineup was filled be league average to slightly above offensive players. To augment some needed pop to the lineup the Royals went out and signed Matt Adams to a 1 year 10 mil $ deal. The one spot that was a definite weakness was catcher with Kevin Plawecki more of a solid back up they went out traded for Curt Casali and signed defensive wiz Tyler FLowers to a 1 year 6.5 mil $ which should only have help their rotation be even better.
Rotation:
A foundation built around 2 Cy young Candidates, Aaron Nola and Chris Sale, headline the strength of their team. Sale having the best SP projection in the game and Nola in the top 10. Follow that up Kyle Freeland who had gotten an above average projection, Jake Junis and Dereck Rodriguez who both had league average projections which is good for a 4th and 5th starter. Couple that with Corbin Burnes, Touki Toussaint, and Bryse Wilson all receiving average to above average projection they had a great amount of Rotation depth for injuries or poor performance.
As I have just started these team reviews and will be able to say easier later I definitely think this had to be a top 5 rotation if not the best in the league. It is currently ranked 2nd in the game only behind Cleveland but prior to the season it is a safe bet that KC was #1.
Bullpen:
The most obvious weakness of the team. Last season having the 11th highest bullpen ERA in just the AL. Arodys Vizcaino great rating but projection more of a set up guy there was no truly elite back end of the bullpen options. Not sure how much cap space the Royals had but I think they probably should have looked at least at getting some depth for their bullpen.
Early Season:
Going 39-41 in the first 3 months of the season despite Nola, Sale, and Arenado playing up to their potential along with Odubel Herrera and Adams playing at elite levels the former in the MVP Race for the first several months of the season. Alas it looks like a lot of their early struggles was due to the bullpen not able to secure leads. Sitting in the middle of the pack for the WC the royals had yet to make a move. In fairness their wasn't very many teams that had made moves yet.
Mid Season:
In July this team 15 out of 16 games to move within 4.5 games of the division and into the 2nd spot of the WC game. It looks like this spurred Bryce into looking at ways to upgrade his roster. Signing RP Rhiner Cruz, trading for Bryce Brentz and the real gem trading for an ace reliever in Jose Alvarado. These moves were to help solidify the bullpen and give the lineup some more depth at little cost. Also flipped Plawecki for prospects sense he had 2 other solid catchers.
End of the Season Thoughts:
Lineup:
Bryce had to be very happy with the way the lineup produced finishing 4th in the entire league in R/G. As stated before Arenado played like an MVP candidate with a .303/.388/.567 41 HR, 117 Rs, 117 RBIs and 8.6 WAR. Around him Winker, Adams, Herrera and Profar all crushed with Chisenhall, Brentz, Swanson, and Flowers all being solid contributors. This gave the Royals a fiercely deep lineup. No regular for him really struggled. The bench of Tulo, Goodrum and Guzman may not have been great but neither were they completely terrible. Overall the team finished in the top 3 in most offensive categories. Can't ask for much more than that.
Starting Rotation:
Pretty much as advertised. 2nd in the AL in staters ERA with Sale and Nola finishing in the top 5 of most AL pitching categories and will be fighting it out with Kershaw for the AL Cy Young. Freeland was a very good #3 that looked like might have just ran out of gas with a September ERA of 7.77 in 5 starts which really killed his final stats. He still finished with a 4.21 ERA. Rodriguez was very average. The only weakness turned out to be Junis who started the season strong in April but struggled the rest of the way.
Bullpen:
Vizcaino pitched even better than could imagine in the closer spot going 0-3 2.34 ERA 36 saves to 1 BS. Likewise Alvarado was downright dominant in his 20 games for the Royals sporting a .75 ERA. Unfortunately the rest of the bullpen didn't preform. Overall the Bullpen had a 4.27 ERA good for 11th in the AL with 16 BS and 24 losses. Unfortunately this looks to be the main cause of this team under performing its run differential which said this team should have been at 90+ wins.
In conclusion Bryce had a much better season than last. It is always going to suck when you miss out on the playoffs by such a little amount. The good thing is the Royals have a great foundation and currently with the 5th ranked system (in game) should have plenty of help on the way. The only major FA is Chris Sale and with only 82 mil in guaranteed contracts next season should have a good chance at retaining him. Unfortunately the bullpen looks to be a big need again. Vizcaino got hurt only pitching in 4 games and Alvarado not pitching near as well IRL as he completely lost his command and averaged almost a walk/IP which will probably cause his projection to dip quite a bit. I would think that with the cap space, farm system (Assets), and the clear need that Bryce will not go into next season without making significant upgrades to his bullpen.
Trades Overview:
RP Peyton Culbertson and SP Jordan Zimmerman for C Curt Casali - This looks like a trade that the Royals could help get a some help at catcher which was a weakness while shedding some salary and some redundancy in Jordan Zimmerman. Culbertson is a young prospect that has pitched well in his young career not yet ranked in the Marlins organization. I think that this worked out as the Royals had hoped as Casali preformed as a solid backup up catcher hitting for 94 OPS+ and providing above average defense in 78 GP good for 1.1 WAR.
RP Luis Curbelo for RF Bryce Brentz - Bryce Brentz is 30 years old and last played in the majors in 2016 so really has no upside or future but had been simming well so the Rockies flipped him for the best offer they got which may have been the only offer they got. Curbelo hasn't played well in the minors but he was once rated as a top 30 White Sox prospect back in 2018. Brentz played pretty great in a part time role with the Royals hitting 10 HRs in just 35 games. I imagine Bryce is happy with this trade.
C Kevin Plawecki for SS Osiris Johnson and LF Desmond Lindsay - With 3 catchers it was smart to move 1 for prospects. Johnson a top 20 Marlins prospect but young and all projection so a high variance prospect. Lindsay was a top 10 Mets prospect but after only playing 15 games this season I am sure he will probably drop a bit on lists. For a backup catcher can't ask for much more. Pretty even trade for both teams to me.
RP David Hernandez, 3B Emmanueal Rivera, and SP Tyson Miller for RP Jose Alvarado - Hernandez looks like mainly a throw in as he is a FA after the season. Maybe for salary or for roster spot purposes. Rivera a top 20 Royals prospect and Miller a top 30 Cubs prospect are similar prospects as they have been really good at times and struggled at times but there is obviously some upside to both guys. Alvarado's value was hurt because of the season he was having or I think the Sox's could have gotten more for him. The Royals got exactly what they needed from him for this season as previously noted a .75 ERA in 20 appearances helped bolster the back end of the bullpen. Even though the projection won't be as good this year I would think it would still be solid and with 4 years of control left their is some upside in this trade for the Royals as well.
C Josh Phegley, and Adam Warren for C Sam Huff - Looks like trying to move the guaranteed money left on Warren and a backup catcher for a high ceiling young prospect.
I am not going to give too much of an opinion on trades as I don't want to judge people openly one way or another about what they thought was a good trade or not. Just tried to give what looked like the thought process behind why they made the trades.
Free Agency Overview:
Matt Adams 1 yr 10 Mil - .276/.333/.553 43 HRs 121 RBIs 133 OPS+ and 4.0. Worked out amazing for the Royals. Only a 1 year deal is the only thing that prevents this from being an A+. A
C Tyler Flowers 1 yr 6.5 Mil - .222/.346/.342 87 OPS+ 1.9 WAR in 93 games. Probably wished the bat was better but overall he provided the defense he was known for and was a solid over all contributor. I imagine this is about what Bryce hoped for when signing him. With better offense the grade would have been higher. C+
RP Rhiner Cruz 1 yr .745 Mil - 3.00 ERA in 23 games was decent in helping out the bullpen but for only half a season and a relief pitcher. C
SS Troy Tulowitzki 1 yr 1.5 Mil - Mainly a bench piece. Didn't provide much value but also didn't hurt anything. D+
LF Ian Desmond 1 yr 1.2 Mil - Signed for depth. Cut after 28 games. D+
SP Tanner Roark 2 yr 3.14 - Don't hate this signing. Solid 5th starter that can provide some innings. Used only in relief and only for 14 games. He was around average for a SP IRL so overall isn't terrible to have him for a 2nd year. The usage is just a bit odd. C+
Overall not much activity in FA, a definite boon in the Adams signing and ok results with the other 2. B- Overall.
Starting the Off-season:
Lineup: Nolen Arenado traded for in the middle of the 2018 gave this lineup an anchor it hadn't previously had. Paired with Dansby Swanson created a dominate left side defense. Around him may have not been other stars but every other spot in the lineup was filled be league average to slightly above offensive players. To augment some needed pop to the lineup the Royals went out and signed Matt Adams to a 1 year 10 mil $ deal. The one spot that was a definite weakness was catcher with Kevin Plawecki more of a solid back up they went out traded for Curt Casali and signed defensive wiz Tyler FLowers to a 1 year 6.5 mil $ which should only have help their rotation be even better.
Rotation:
A foundation built around 2 Cy young Candidates, Aaron Nola and Chris Sale, headline the strength of their team. Sale having the best SP projection in the game and Nola in the top 10. Follow that up Kyle Freeland who had gotten an above average projection, Jake Junis and Dereck Rodriguez who both had league average projections which is good for a 4th and 5th starter. Couple that with Corbin Burnes, Touki Toussaint, and Bryse Wilson all receiving average to above average projection they had a great amount of Rotation depth for injuries or poor performance.
As I have just started these team reviews and will be able to say easier later I definitely think this had to be a top 5 rotation if not the best in the league. It is currently ranked 2nd in the game only behind Cleveland but prior to the season it is a safe bet that KC was #1.
Bullpen:
The most obvious weakness of the team. Last season having the 11th highest bullpen ERA in just the AL. Arodys Vizcaino great rating but projection more of a set up guy there was no truly elite back end of the bullpen options. Not sure how much cap space the Royals had but I think they probably should have looked at least at getting some depth for their bullpen.
Early Season:
Going 39-41 in the first 3 months of the season despite Nola, Sale, and Arenado playing up to their potential along with Odubel Herrera and Adams playing at elite levels the former in the MVP Race for the first several months of the season. Alas it looks like a lot of their early struggles was due to the bullpen not able to secure leads. Sitting in the middle of the pack for the WC the royals had yet to make a move. In fairness their wasn't very many teams that had made moves yet.
Mid Season:
In July this team 15 out of 16 games to move within 4.5 games of the division and into the 2nd spot of the WC game. It looks like this spurred Bryce into looking at ways to upgrade his roster. Signing RP Rhiner Cruz, trading for Bryce Brentz and the real gem trading for an ace reliever in Jose Alvarado. These moves were to help solidify the bullpen and give the lineup some more depth at little cost. Also flipped Plawecki for prospects sense he had 2 other solid catchers.
End of the Season Thoughts:
Lineup:
Bryce had to be very happy with the way the lineup produced finishing 4th in the entire league in R/G. As stated before Arenado played like an MVP candidate with a .303/.388/.567 41 HR, 117 Rs, 117 RBIs and 8.6 WAR. Around him Winker, Adams, Herrera and Profar all crushed with Chisenhall, Brentz, Swanson, and Flowers all being solid contributors. This gave the Royals a fiercely deep lineup. No regular for him really struggled. The bench of Tulo, Goodrum and Guzman may not have been great but neither were they completely terrible. Overall the team finished in the top 3 in most offensive categories. Can't ask for much more than that.
Starting Rotation:
Pretty much as advertised. 2nd in the AL in staters ERA with Sale and Nola finishing in the top 5 of most AL pitching categories and will be fighting it out with Kershaw for the AL Cy Young. Freeland was a very good #3 that looked like might have just ran out of gas with a September ERA of 7.77 in 5 starts which really killed his final stats. He still finished with a 4.21 ERA. Rodriguez was very average. The only weakness turned out to be Junis who started the season strong in April but struggled the rest of the way.
Bullpen:
Vizcaino pitched even better than could imagine in the closer spot going 0-3 2.34 ERA 36 saves to 1 BS. Likewise Alvarado was downright dominant in his 20 games for the Royals sporting a .75 ERA. Unfortunately the rest of the bullpen didn't preform. Overall the Bullpen had a 4.27 ERA good for 11th in the AL with 16 BS and 24 losses. Unfortunately this looks to be the main cause of this team under performing its run differential which said this team should have been at 90+ wins.
In conclusion Bryce had a much better season than last. It is always going to suck when you miss out on the playoffs by such a little amount. The good thing is the Royals have a great foundation and currently with the 5th ranked system (in game) should have plenty of help on the way. The only major FA is Chris Sale and with only 82 mil in guaranteed contracts next season should have a good chance at retaining him. Unfortunately the bullpen looks to be a big need again. Vizcaino got hurt only pitching in 4 games and Alvarado not pitching near as well IRL as he completely lost his command and averaged almost a walk/IP which will probably cause his projection to dip quite a bit. I would think that with the cap space, farm system (Assets), and the clear need that Bryce will not go into next season without making significant upgrades to his bullpen.
Trades Overview:
RP Peyton Culbertson and SP Jordan Zimmerman for C Curt Casali - This looks like a trade that the Royals could help get a some help at catcher which was a weakness while shedding some salary and some redundancy in Jordan Zimmerman. Culbertson is a young prospect that has pitched well in his young career not yet ranked in the Marlins organization. I think that this worked out as the Royals had hoped as Casali preformed as a solid backup up catcher hitting for 94 OPS+ and providing above average defense in 78 GP good for 1.1 WAR.
RP Luis Curbelo for RF Bryce Brentz - Bryce Brentz is 30 years old and last played in the majors in 2016 so really has no upside or future but had been simming well so the Rockies flipped him for the best offer they got which may have been the only offer they got. Curbelo hasn't played well in the minors but he was once rated as a top 30 White Sox prospect back in 2018. Brentz played pretty great in a part time role with the Royals hitting 10 HRs in just 35 games. I imagine Bryce is happy with this trade.
C Kevin Plawecki for SS Osiris Johnson and LF Desmond Lindsay - With 3 catchers it was smart to move 1 for prospects. Johnson a top 20 Marlins prospect but young and all projection so a high variance prospect. Lindsay was a top 10 Mets prospect but after only playing 15 games this season I am sure he will probably drop a bit on lists. For a backup catcher can't ask for much more. Pretty even trade for both teams to me.
RP David Hernandez, 3B Emmanueal Rivera, and SP Tyson Miller for RP Jose Alvarado - Hernandez looks like mainly a throw in as he is a FA after the season. Maybe for salary or for roster spot purposes. Rivera a top 20 Royals prospect and Miller a top 30 Cubs prospect are similar prospects as they have been really good at times and struggled at times but there is obviously some upside to both guys. Alvarado's value was hurt because of the season he was having or I think the Sox's could have gotten more for him. The Royals got exactly what they needed from him for this season as previously noted a .75 ERA in 20 appearances helped bolster the back end of the bullpen. Even though the projection won't be as good this year I would think it would still be solid and with 4 years of control left their is some upside in this trade for the Royals as well.
C Josh Phegley, and Adam Warren for C Sam Huff - Looks like trying to move the guaranteed money left on Warren and a backup catcher for a high ceiling young prospect.
I am not going to give too much of an opinion on trades as I don't want to judge people openly one way or another about what they thought was a good trade or not. Just tried to give what looked like the thought process behind why they made the trades.
Free Agency Overview:
Matt Adams 1 yr 10 Mil - .276/.333/.553 43 HRs 121 RBIs 133 OPS+ and 4.0. Worked out amazing for the Royals. Only a 1 year deal is the only thing that prevents this from being an A+. A
C Tyler Flowers 1 yr 6.5 Mil - .222/.346/.342 87 OPS+ 1.9 WAR in 93 games. Probably wished the bat was better but overall he provided the defense he was known for and was a solid over all contributor. I imagine this is about what Bryce hoped for when signing him. With better offense the grade would have been higher. C+
RP Rhiner Cruz 1 yr .745 Mil - 3.00 ERA in 23 games was decent in helping out the bullpen but for only half a season and a relief pitcher. C
SS Troy Tulowitzki 1 yr 1.5 Mil - Mainly a bench piece. Didn't provide much value but also didn't hurt anything. D+
LF Ian Desmond 1 yr 1.2 Mil - Signed for depth. Cut after 28 games. D+
SP Tanner Roark 2 yr 3.14 - Don't hate this signing. Solid 5th starter that can provide some innings. Used only in relief and only for 14 games. He was around average for a SP IRL so overall isn't terrible to have him for a 2nd year. The usage is just a bit odd. C+
Overall not much activity in FA, a definite boon in the Adams signing and ok results with the other 2. B- Overall.