Post by Strategist on Jan 23, 2020 18:34:43 GMT
2018 Review:
Record: 62-100 5th in AL East. R/G Scored: 10th (AL) R/G Against: 15th (AL)
Worst record in the league.
Starting the Offseason:
Lineup: Obviously a team with a lot of holes but started with some talent with some high upside. 3B Rafael Devers, RF Nomar Mazara, CF Albert Almora, SS Jorge Polanco, and RF Derek Fisher. The first thing he did was go out and get him an all star for the middle of his lineup moving Polanco and Devers to TB for 1B Joey Votto, 3B Matt Duffy, and some prospects. He also signed 2B Daniel Murphy to be another middle of the lineup bat. Also claimed SS Asdrubel Cabrera off of waivers. RF Dexter Fowler filled out the OF. At Catcher they had the combination of elite defender Rene Rivera and solid defender AJ Ellis. Votto, Murphy, and DH/RF Shohei Ohtani all had elite projections and formed one of the better middle of the lineup combinations. Definitely upgraded their offense going into the season.
Rotation: The previously mentioned Ohtani was their best SP starting the offseason with a slightly above average projection. Followed by Carlos Rodon with a similar projection. Eric would move Rodon for Danny Duffy. He also traded for Drew Smyly. He filled out the rest of the rotation witha combination of Adalberto Mejia, Matt Andriese, and Jonathan Loaisiga.
Bullpen: The bullpen was the one place that didn't need a lot of work. Resigning Justin Wilson to pair with Joe Jimenez gave the O's an elite lefty righty pair at the back end of the bullpen. Surrounded by 4 other above average RPs. Maybe not an elite bullpen but very good for sure.
Season Review:
Started off the season pretty slow with a 29-30 record going into June. Next they explode into what was the best winning streak of any team this season (Not wholly verified) from June 1st - June 26th going 22-1 including a 16 game win streak. This moved the O's into 1st place in the AL East and led them to look for ways to improve their team. Trading for JA Happ, Cole Hamels, Andrew McCutchen, Maikel Franco, and Jake Bauers. With the additions BAL was able to win just enough games to hold off the hottest 2nd half team NYY by 2 games to complete the transformation from last to first in the division. Finishing 91-71 which was good enough to finish 3rd in the AL and setup a Division Series battle with TEX. They would go on to average over 6 runs/game in the series and win 3-1 moving on to the ALCS. In the ALCS they were matched up against #1 seed CLE. Their pitching stepped up in the series holding the Indians who averaged 5.7 R/G to 18 runs over 5 games (removing the 4 runs scored in the top of 11 in game 3). Unfortunately the hot bats didn't follow the team to the ALCS as they only scored 18 runs over the 5 games themselves and only 10 in the 4 losses. They would lose the series 4-1.
In Conclusion:
Great season for the O's. They may have over achieved a bit with a record of 23-13 in 1 run games. I like that once they had that amazing streak that put them in 1st place that they went out and tried to sure up their holes. I think those moves are the biggest reason that they were able to hold on in what was a tough race with the NYY and the TBR.
Lineup: 5th (AL) in runs scored. Votto had an MVP type season hitting .290/.416/.437 and a 143 OPS+. He would have finished 3rd or 4th on my MVP ballot. I think if he would have hit more HRs (16) or had more RBIs (72) he would have had a better case still an all around great season. Around him Murphy, Cabrera, Fowler, and Mccutchen all had great seasons. Very good offensive lineup that was the major reason for their turn around.
Rotation: 11th (AL) in starters' ERA. Really just struggled from top to bottom. Ohtani had the lowest ERA at 4.30 and none of the other major SP had an ERA under 4.58.
Bullpen: 6th (AL) in bullpen ERA. A good solid bullpen to help pick up the slack of the rotation. I think this is a big reason they had a good record in 1 run games. Good Offense and Good bullpen. Jimmie Sherfy stood out going 4-2 3 SVs a 2.53 ERA and 119 Ks in 85 GP and 78 IP.
Future:
2020 Finances: 156.3 Mil should have a cap around 170-180 Mil so some space to work with. I wouldn't call any of their FAs must resign as most didn't perform as well IRL and will get lower projections/ratings. Hamels, Smyly and Happ all fall into that category so that is 3/5ths of their current rotation.
Needs: The lineup should still be solid from top to bottom although Murphy's projection fell back to league average and Votto's is no longer in the superstar range so the middle might not be quite as fearsome. The bullpen should also still be pretty good though they will need to resign Wilson or find a replacement. The rotation is the biggest need. As noted 3 of the 5 SPs are FA and league average at best. Ohtani is a good start. Duffy is a solid #4/5 type SP. They do have Adrian Houser who is also above average and could fill in as SP #3. So really they need an ace (I fill like I say this about almost every team that wants to compete next season) and could use another #3/#4 type SP to fill out the rotation. I think this team should be right there competing with the Rays and Yankees next season for the AL East.
Trades Overview:
3B Rafael Devers, SS Jorge Polanco, and RP Jeff Hoffman to TB for 1B Joey Votto, 3B Matt Duffy, SP Hunter Greene, SS Arquimedes Gamboa, and SP Jonathan Loasiga - So I definitely understand at the time that this trade was consummated that it was a very good trade for BAL. Getting Votto and his elite projection along with Duffy who had actaully been a better player than Polanco so far in their careers as well as getting a top 100 prospect in Hunter Greene, and Loasiga who was a NYY top prospect that was very close to the majors. Devers at the time was still all potential. In his first 179 GP he was a below average regular. Unfortunately for BAL long term Devers finally found his potential and turned in an MVP type season and Polanco reached new heights himself in the conversation for much of the first 4 months of the season and making the Allstar team. Likewise Votto and Duffy struggled in real life. Votto was great for 1 season for the O's and they should get at least a few more solid seasons out of him the problem he is signed for 20+ Mil through 2024 in which he will turn 41. Greene and Loasiga would both moved in subsequent trades so this trade really comes down to Votto, Duffy, and Gamboa who isn't a low tier prospect to start with.
SP Carter Stewart, CF Daniel Montano, SS Marcos Junior Gonzalez to NYM for SP Drew Smyly, SS JT Riddle, LF Drew Ferguson, and C Taylor Davis - Did get Smyly who was an ok SP for them other than that not a lot of talent with any of these players. Stewart was a top 10 pick in 2018 but is playing the next 6 years at least in Japan.
SP Carlos Rodon to TB for SP Danny Duffy - Very similar rated pitchers before the season and with Duffy's contract I would rather have had Rodon. That has changed though Duffy has been better so far in his career and has a better peak. Just hasn't pitched great the last 2 years. Rodon has pitched worst though and just had to have Tommy John surgery after on 7 GS. So I think the Orioles got the better end of this.
3B Johan Camargo to SD for SS Tommy Edman, and LF Joel Booker - Camargo was coming off a very good 2018 season and BAL moved him while his value was highest. Carmargo had an overall terrible 2019. Edman likewise had a very amazing 2019 but was moved in a later trade. Joel Booker is mostly a non prospect.
SP Dane Dunning and SS Tommy Edman to TB for JA Happ - Happ actually had a very good projection for the 2019 season and this was probably a pretty fair trade. Edman did have a great 90 games in the majors but he way over performed what he had ever done in the minors so I have my doubts that this is his new norm. Happ struggled for the O's going 4-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 14 GS.
SP Chance Adams and SP Hunter Greene to ATL for SP Cole Hamels - I think this was a pretty smart and fair trade for both sides as well. Greene a constant top 100 prospect the last few years but after going under elbow surgery himself he will be far away from contributing. Hamels was pitching amazing for the Braves but after coming over in the trade struggled big time going 4-7 with a 5.45 ERA in 13 GS.
SP Jonatha Loaisiga, C Miguel Amaya, and CF Lamonte Wade to PIT for LF Andrew McCutchen - McCutchen has been great over the last 10 years. Although at this point he is more in the very good category then great. Still signed for 3 more seasons he will still have a very good projection next season. Probably 2nd best on the team. Only 33 he could maintain the same level of play throughout the rest of the contract. Loaisiga has been a top NYY prospect but hasn't shown much in the majors yet. Amaya is a top 100 prospect and Wade is more of a 4th OF type. Pretty fair trade at the moment. McCutchen did hit amazing going .262/.367/.492 15 HRs and a 131 OPS+ in 62 GP. A big boost to the offense.
3B Ty France to MIN for Maikel Franco - France is a lower tier prospect that has crushed the last 2 seasons in AAA and got 69 games in the majors this season but struggled with a .234 BA. Franco did provide an upgrade at 3B the rest of the season hitting for a 103 OPS+ in 49 games.
SS Orlando Arcia and RF Tyler Esplin to COL for 1B Jake Bauers - Arcia has been one of the worst offensive players in the league the last 2 seasons. His defens has kept him in the league. Esplin isn't much of a prospect. Bauers had a good projection for the season so it would have provided something to the O's but I think they forgot about him and he got released after being on waiver for 7 days.
FA Overview:
SP/RP RJ Alaniz 4 yr 22.86 Mil - 4-6 4.73 ERA in 18 GS/54 GP. A RP IRL and didn't pitch well last season. Does have some impressive strikeout numbers but at 28 I don't see him with much potential. I wouldn't mind a short term deal but 4 yrs guaranteed is too much for a guy that will probably not get much better ratings/projections next season. Only 5.5 Mil/yr so that prevents it from being an F. D-
2B Daniel Murphy 5 yr 149.5 Mil - Before the season I wouldn't have loved this contract but I don't think it would have looked as bad as it does now. Murphy signing with COL IRL would make me think the would have had a chance to put up elite offensive numbers for at least the next 2-3 years which would have give a good 3-4 years of projections. I would have still felt like it was an overpay. As you all may have noticed I try to compare what the player got on the open market to what he is paid in our league to see about what a player's value is and Murphy only got a 2 yr 24 Mil contract from COL. Now though after Murphy struggled to a below average season for the first time since 2009 and his projection dropped dramatically this contract is scary. For 1 year though he did preform up to his contract hitting .289/.354/.490 24 HRs 106 RBIs and a 127 OPS+. F
Overall: F. I wouldn't have graded this an F before the season so it is kind of unfair. Probably would have gone with a D+ or C-. Just talking about a lot of dead money with these 2 contracts combined the next 4 years. Probably could move the Alaniz contract to a rebuilding team for a prospect but I don't see being able to move the Murphy contract with out taking back a similar contract back.
Record: 62-100 5th in AL East. R/G Scored: 10th (AL) R/G Against: 15th (AL)
Worst record in the league.
Starting the Offseason:
Lineup: Obviously a team with a lot of holes but started with some talent with some high upside. 3B Rafael Devers, RF Nomar Mazara, CF Albert Almora, SS Jorge Polanco, and RF Derek Fisher. The first thing he did was go out and get him an all star for the middle of his lineup moving Polanco and Devers to TB for 1B Joey Votto, 3B Matt Duffy, and some prospects. He also signed 2B Daniel Murphy to be another middle of the lineup bat. Also claimed SS Asdrubel Cabrera off of waivers. RF Dexter Fowler filled out the OF. At Catcher they had the combination of elite defender Rene Rivera and solid defender AJ Ellis. Votto, Murphy, and DH/RF Shohei Ohtani all had elite projections and formed one of the better middle of the lineup combinations. Definitely upgraded their offense going into the season.
Rotation: The previously mentioned Ohtani was their best SP starting the offseason with a slightly above average projection. Followed by Carlos Rodon with a similar projection. Eric would move Rodon for Danny Duffy. He also traded for Drew Smyly. He filled out the rest of the rotation witha combination of Adalberto Mejia, Matt Andriese, and Jonathan Loaisiga.
Bullpen: The bullpen was the one place that didn't need a lot of work. Resigning Justin Wilson to pair with Joe Jimenez gave the O's an elite lefty righty pair at the back end of the bullpen. Surrounded by 4 other above average RPs. Maybe not an elite bullpen but very good for sure.
Season Review:
Started off the season pretty slow with a 29-30 record going into June. Next they explode into what was the best winning streak of any team this season (Not wholly verified) from June 1st - June 26th going 22-1 including a 16 game win streak. This moved the O's into 1st place in the AL East and led them to look for ways to improve their team. Trading for JA Happ, Cole Hamels, Andrew McCutchen, Maikel Franco, and Jake Bauers. With the additions BAL was able to win just enough games to hold off the hottest 2nd half team NYY by 2 games to complete the transformation from last to first in the division. Finishing 91-71 which was good enough to finish 3rd in the AL and setup a Division Series battle with TEX. They would go on to average over 6 runs/game in the series and win 3-1 moving on to the ALCS. In the ALCS they were matched up against #1 seed CLE. Their pitching stepped up in the series holding the Indians who averaged 5.7 R/G to 18 runs over 5 games (removing the 4 runs scored in the top of 11 in game 3). Unfortunately the hot bats didn't follow the team to the ALCS as they only scored 18 runs over the 5 games themselves and only 10 in the 4 losses. They would lose the series 4-1.
In Conclusion:
Great season for the O's. They may have over achieved a bit with a record of 23-13 in 1 run games. I like that once they had that amazing streak that put them in 1st place that they went out and tried to sure up their holes. I think those moves are the biggest reason that they were able to hold on in what was a tough race with the NYY and the TBR.
Lineup: 5th (AL) in runs scored. Votto had an MVP type season hitting .290/.416/.437 and a 143 OPS+. He would have finished 3rd or 4th on my MVP ballot. I think if he would have hit more HRs (16) or had more RBIs (72) he would have had a better case still an all around great season. Around him Murphy, Cabrera, Fowler, and Mccutchen all had great seasons. Very good offensive lineup that was the major reason for their turn around.
Rotation: 11th (AL) in starters' ERA. Really just struggled from top to bottom. Ohtani had the lowest ERA at 4.30 and none of the other major SP had an ERA under 4.58.
Bullpen: 6th (AL) in bullpen ERA. A good solid bullpen to help pick up the slack of the rotation. I think this is a big reason they had a good record in 1 run games. Good Offense and Good bullpen. Jimmie Sherfy stood out going 4-2 3 SVs a 2.53 ERA and 119 Ks in 85 GP and 78 IP.
Future:
2020 Finances: 156.3 Mil should have a cap around 170-180 Mil so some space to work with. I wouldn't call any of their FAs must resign as most didn't perform as well IRL and will get lower projections/ratings. Hamels, Smyly and Happ all fall into that category so that is 3/5ths of their current rotation.
Needs: The lineup should still be solid from top to bottom although Murphy's projection fell back to league average and Votto's is no longer in the superstar range so the middle might not be quite as fearsome. The bullpen should also still be pretty good though they will need to resign Wilson or find a replacement. The rotation is the biggest need. As noted 3 of the 5 SPs are FA and league average at best. Ohtani is a good start. Duffy is a solid #4/5 type SP. They do have Adrian Houser who is also above average and could fill in as SP #3. So really they need an ace (I fill like I say this about almost every team that wants to compete next season) and could use another #3/#4 type SP to fill out the rotation. I think this team should be right there competing with the Rays and Yankees next season for the AL East.
Trades Overview:
3B Rafael Devers, SS Jorge Polanco, and RP Jeff Hoffman to TB for 1B Joey Votto, 3B Matt Duffy, SP Hunter Greene, SS Arquimedes Gamboa, and SP Jonathan Loasiga - So I definitely understand at the time that this trade was consummated that it was a very good trade for BAL. Getting Votto and his elite projection along with Duffy who had actaully been a better player than Polanco so far in their careers as well as getting a top 100 prospect in Hunter Greene, and Loasiga who was a NYY top prospect that was very close to the majors. Devers at the time was still all potential. In his first 179 GP he was a below average regular. Unfortunately for BAL long term Devers finally found his potential and turned in an MVP type season and Polanco reached new heights himself in the conversation for much of the first 4 months of the season and making the Allstar team. Likewise Votto and Duffy struggled in real life. Votto was great for 1 season for the O's and they should get at least a few more solid seasons out of him the problem he is signed for 20+ Mil through 2024 in which he will turn 41. Greene and Loasiga would both moved in subsequent trades so this trade really comes down to Votto, Duffy, and Gamboa who isn't a low tier prospect to start with.
SP Carter Stewart, CF Daniel Montano, SS Marcos Junior Gonzalez to NYM for SP Drew Smyly, SS JT Riddle, LF Drew Ferguson, and C Taylor Davis - Did get Smyly who was an ok SP for them other than that not a lot of talent with any of these players. Stewart was a top 10 pick in 2018 but is playing the next 6 years at least in Japan.
SP Carlos Rodon to TB for SP Danny Duffy - Very similar rated pitchers before the season and with Duffy's contract I would rather have had Rodon. That has changed though Duffy has been better so far in his career and has a better peak. Just hasn't pitched great the last 2 years. Rodon has pitched worst though and just had to have Tommy John surgery after on 7 GS. So I think the Orioles got the better end of this.
3B Johan Camargo to SD for SS Tommy Edman, and LF Joel Booker - Camargo was coming off a very good 2018 season and BAL moved him while his value was highest. Carmargo had an overall terrible 2019. Edman likewise had a very amazing 2019 but was moved in a later trade. Joel Booker is mostly a non prospect.
SP Dane Dunning and SS Tommy Edman to TB for JA Happ - Happ actually had a very good projection for the 2019 season and this was probably a pretty fair trade. Edman did have a great 90 games in the majors but he way over performed what he had ever done in the minors so I have my doubts that this is his new norm. Happ struggled for the O's going 4-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 14 GS.
SP Chance Adams and SP Hunter Greene to ATL for SP Cole Hamels - I think this was a pretty smart and fair trade for both sides as well. Greene a constant top 100 prospect the last few years but after going under elbow surgery himself he will be far away from contributing. Hamels was pitching amazing for the Braves but after coming over in the trade struggled big time going 4-7 with a 5.45 ERA in 13 GS.
SP Jonatha Loaisiga, C Miguel Amaya, and CF Lamonte Wade to PIT for LF Andrew McCutchen - McCutchen has been great over the last 10 years. Although at this point he is more in the very good category then great. Still signed for 3 more seasons he will still have a very good projection next season. Probably 2nd best on the team. Only 33 he could maintain the same level of play throughout the rest of the contract. Loaisiga has been a top NYY prospect but hasn't shown much in the majors yet. Amaya is a top 100 prospect and Wade is more of a 4th OF type. Pretty fair trade at the moment. McCutchen did hit amazing going .262/.367/.492 15 HRs and a 131 OPS+ in 62 GP. A big boost to the offense.
3B Ty France to MIN for Maikel Franco - France is a lower tier prospect that has crushed the last 2 seasons in AAA and got 69 games in the majors this season but struggled with a .234 BA. Franco did provide an upgrade at 3B the rest of the season hitting for a 103 OPS+ in 49 games.
SS Orlando Arcia and RF Tyler Esplin to COL for 1B Jake Bauers - Arcia has been one of the worst offensive players in the league the last 2 seasons. His defens has kept him in the league. Esplin isn't much of a prospect. Bauers had a good projection for the season so it would have provided something to the O's but I think they forgot about him and he got released after being on waiver for 7 days.
FA Overview:
SP/RP RJ Alaniz 4 yr 22.86 Mil - 4-6 4.73 ERA in 18 GS/54 GP. A RP IRL and didn't pitch well last season. Does have some impressive strikeout numbers but at 28 I don't see him with much potential. I wouldn't mind a short term deal but 4 yrs guaranteed is too much for a guy that will probably not get much better ratings/projections next season. Only 5.5 Mil/yr so that prevents it from being an F. D-
2B Daniel Murphy 5 yr 149.5 Mil - Before the season I wouldn't have loved this contract but I don't think it would have looked as bad as it does now. Murphy signing with COL IRL would make me think the would have had a chance to put up elite offensive numbers for at least the next 2-3 years which would have give a good 3-4 years of projections. I would have still felt like it was an overpay. As you all may have noticed I try to compare what the player got on the open market to what he is paid in our league to see about what a player's value is and Murphy only got a 2 yr 24 Mil contract from COL. Now though after Murphy struggled to a below average season for the first time since 2009 and his projection dropped dramatically this contract is scary. For 1 year though he did preform up to his contract hitting .289/.354/.490 24 HRs 106 RBIs and a 127 OPS+. F
Overall: F. I wouldn't have graded this an F before the season so it is kind of unfair. Probably would have gone with a D+ or C-. Just talking about a lot of dead money with these 2 contracts combined the next 4 years. Probably could move the Alaniz contract to a rebuilding team for a prospect but I don't see being able to move the Murphy contract with out taking back a similar contract back.